An Economic Analysis of India

Biswas, Basudeb

     This research seeks to investigate the major reasons for the relative stagnation in India's exports" in the period 1950-70. "Although an understanding of the structural features of India's export trade is obviously necessary, the primary focus of the analysis is on studying the effectiveness and relevance of the public policy measures pertaining to foreign trade. . . . The main work begins . . . with an analysis of India's exports in the Constant-Market-Shares (CMS) framework. The analysis offers a broad and useful overview of the relative share of the structural and non-structural factors in the observed export performance. Attempt is also made . . . to relate the residual or the 'competitive' effect for the different periods and the different sectors to the relevant trade policies." The study then "puts the analysis in the standard framework of demand and supply, and estimates the aggregate demand and supply elasticities of Indian exports both with single equation and simultaneous equation models. The elasticity estimates supplement the broad results obtained from the CMS analysis and also yield more precise quantitative estimates of the demand and supply responses. The chapter also includes a specific case study of tea exports. To generalize the analysis further and also to focus more sharply on the impact of public politics," the study then "attempts a cross country analysis based on the export performance, besides India, of Brazil, Pakistan and the Philippines. . . . The diversity offered by these perspectives is a useful empirical aid in understanding the extent to which public policies can help or hinder India's export performance." The dissertation concludes with a chapter that "summarizes the study and states the major lessons emerging from it.